Tripoli, Libya — May 22, 2025
Libya’s fragile ceasefire agreement is holding, despite fresh clashes that erupted over the weekend in the outskirts of Tripoli. The violence, which involved rival militia groups, raised fears of a wider breakdown in peace efforts, but national and international actors moved quickly to contain the situation.
The latest incident underscores the challenges facing Libya as it tries to stabilize following more than a decade of civil war, political division, and foreign intervention.
What Happened?
On Saturday night, gunfire and explosions rocked parts of Ain Zara and Salahuddin, two neighborhoods south of the capital. Residents reported intense firefights between rival factions, believed to be affiliated with the Interior Ministry and local militia leaders.
Although no deaths were officially confirmed, medical sources said at least 14 people were injured, including three civilians caught in the crossfire.
By Monday morning, the situation had calmed. Both parties reportedly agreed to withdraw under the supervision of the 5+5 Joint Military Commission, a UN-backed body monitoring the ceasefire since 2020.
Ceasefire Still Holding
Despite these skirmishes, Libya’s nationwide ceasefire, agreed upon in October 2020, remains officially intact. This deal, signed between forces loyal to the UN-backed Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli and the rival Libyan National Army (LNA) based in the east, has helped significantly reduce large-scale conflict.
The UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) released a statement calling the clashes “a serious concern,” but praised both sides for preventing further escalation.
“We urge all parties to refrain from violence and honor the commitments of the ceasefire agreement,” the UN said.
Background: Why Libya Is Still Fragile
Libya descended into chaos after the fall of longtime leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. Since then, the country has been plagued by competing governments, militia warfare, and foreign interference from nations like Turkey, Russia, and the UAE.
In 2021, a transitional government was installed to lead the country toward presidential and parliamentary elections. However, those elections have been repeatedly postponed due to disagreements over rules, candidate eligibility, and voter registration.
As a result, power struggles between eastern and western authorities continue, with Tripoli often becoming the focal point of tension.
Risk of Renewed Conflict?
Analysts warn that while the ceasefire has largely held for over four years, the presence of heavily armed militias in urban areas like Tripoli remains a major risk.
“These groups may be aligned with state institutions on paper, but in reality, they often act independently,” said Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya expert with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
“Unless security is unified under a national command, incidents like this will continue to threaten peace.”
Several Tripoli residents interviewed expressed frustration and fear, saying they are tired of the uncertainty and want real stability.
International Involvement
The international community has remained deeply involved in Libya’s peace process:
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United Nations: Continues to support the political dialogue and monitor ceasefire compliance through UNSMIL.
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European Union: Urged calm and emphasized the importance of moving forward with elections.
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African Union: Recently called for a Libya-led peace process, warning against outside interference.
What’s Next for Libya?
Libya’s main goal remains organizing free and fair elections. The hope is that a unified government with a strong mandate can replace the current patchwork of factions and deliver long-term peace.
However, experts caution that credible elections are unlikely without strong disarmament programs, unified security forces, and legal reforms.
A new roadmap is expected to be discussed at an upcoming summit in Tunis next month, bringing together Libyan stakeholders and international mediators.
Libya’s ceasefire, though tested, is still standing. But the weekend’s clashes show just how fragile that peace truly is. Without deeper political unity, security reform, and trust among armed groups, Libya remains at risk of sliding backward.
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